SPCI 508
Risk Assessment and Management

Required Readings

Required readings are listed in each lesson. All readings are provided online.

Course Introduction

Welcome to SPCI 508, Risk Assessment and Management! In this course, we will focus on integrating the principles of risk assessment and management into strategic planning and decision-making. We'll look at both the process and methods of risk assessment and management. You will be exposed to techniques for modeling complex systems and predicting and evaluating risks associated with a variety of sources, pathways, and consequences. We will explore a broad range of approaches for building scenarios, assessing the effectiveness of alternative management strategies, and designing risk management plans and hazardous mitigation measures. We'll use case studies and simulations to highlight the complexities of risk-based decision-making due to multiple factors, conflicting objectives, incomplete information, and scientific uncertainty.

Course Preview

Eight lessons
Seven written assignments
Eight discussion forums
One final group project

In this course, we will focus on our examples of risk assessment and risk management in three of five critical foundations identified in the White House's National Strategy for the Physical Protection of Critical Infrastructures and Key Assets report. These include agriculture and food, public health, and chemical and hazardous materials. We will not focus on defense, industrial base, postal, or shipping foundations. The techniques and models we will introduce in this course include qualitative and quantitative risk modeling, decision analysis including fault-tree analysis and event-tree analysis, and probabilistic risk-assessment techniques.

Materials

This course includes both required readings and a list of optional materials that are included in the course syllabus as "SPCI 508 Bibliography."

Required and Optional Materials

You will not be required to purchase a textbook. Instead, your instructors have compiled a collection of readings including academic journal articles, government reports and book chapters. These readings have been chosen to complement and build upon your lessons. They cover diverse topics such as policy, risk assessment, risk perception, risk communication, probabilistic techniques, and of course, risk management. Please remember that your assignments will be graded based on your ability to incorporate information from the readings and class lessons.

Many of the readings are available online as PDF files; you'll find links to the readings in relevant lessons. Other readings are available online through the UW Libraries Web site; again, you'll find links in relevant lessons. (If you have not previously accessed readings via the UW Library, we encourage you to begin doing so as soon as possible so you have time to contact the librarians if you have any problems.)

Optional Readings

This course includes a bibliography of relevant (but not required) readings. You'll find references to specific readings in each lesson. Because of the diverse expertise and interests among you and your classmates, this is perhaps the best way to ensure that you are introduced to literature and resources that are relevant to your interests and applications.

Technology Requirements and Skills

See the Online Student Handbook for the technology requirements and skills necessary for this course.

You will receive extra credit on Assignment 6 if you use Crystal Ball, a probabilistic risk analysis software. This software can only be used on PCs. You can download it from Decisioneering's Web site (http://www.decisioneering.com/). It is very important that you follow instructions when downloading this software, as it is a trial version and once installed on your computer, is only available for your use for seven days. Therefore, do not install the software until you are ready to begin working on Assignment 6. If you would like to purchase the software, you can find the academic pricing and ordering information at http://www.crystalball.com/academic_home.html.

Course Prerequisites

There are no prerequisites for this course other than enrollment in the MSPCI Program.

Goals and Objectives

Our goals for this course are that you understand the fundamentals of integrated risk assessment and management, and develop the skills needed to assess and manage risk.

Learning Objectives

By the end of this course, you will be able to

identify public health and environmental hazards and consequences;
identify the methodologies and types of data generated by toxicology and epidemiological studies used to support risk analysis;
characterize the risks of a specific hazard by accounting for variables, differing vulnerabilities, and uncertainties of analysis;
describe the what, why and how of risk analysis—that is, describe and distinguish between the risks, benefits, and costs of a particular action and thereby develop a framework for risk management decision-making;
describe both philosophical and applied risk management approaches used to address public health and environmental risks;
use techniques and models developed for risk assessment and management; and
use the UW Libraries Web site to access online journal holdings.

Course Organization

The course is organized to give you hands-on experience in risk management, right from the start. It includes eight lessons, four written assignments, eight discussion forums, and one final project.

About the Lessons

Lesson One introduces the concepts or risk assessment and risk management.
Lesson Two presents theories and approaches for risk communication.
Lesson Three discusses risk perception and emphasizes the importance of factors such as fear and outrage that influences the perception of an issue by both institutions and the public
Lesson Four outlines methods used in hazard identification, including epidemiological studies, screening methodologies, and toxicological methods.
Lesson Five discusses characterization of risks, including dose-response relationships, susceptibility, and determining exposure pathways.
Lesson Six addresses the issues surrounding uncertainty. We will discuss methodologies for dealing with uncertainty and the challenges of communicating this uncertainty to the public. We'll discuss both modeling and decision analysis.
In Lesson Seven, we'll examine techniques used in risk management, such as cost-benefit analysis, value of information techniques, fault trees, and multi-criteria evaluation.
In Lesson Eight, the final lesson, we will discuss evaluation techniques and effective organizations for risk management, and address issues of institutional infrastructure.

About the Assignments

This course includes four short writing assignments, which you will complete individually. These assignments are based on your reading assignments and the online lesson and in some cases will require you to search for additional information on the Internet. The short length of the assignment is challenging, as you must be concise and use evidence to support your statements. Several assignments are designed to mimic memos or briefings, to help you develop the methods and techniques you will need when addressing these issues in real life situations. Students commonly struggle when they select broad topics; these assignments will require you to narrow your topics in order to answer the questions. The skills you develop in the assignments will help you complete your final project successfully. Assignments will test your ability to synthesize information from the current as well as previous class lessons, readings and personal experiences.

Discussion Forums

As in other courses in the MSPCI program, we will use discussion forums to encourage interaction among students and with the instructor. Each week, you will be required to respond to a discussion question with a two- to three-paragraph response. You will also be required to read your classmates' responses and respond to at least two of your colleague's discussion responses. You are expected to participate by providing thoughtful, substantive answers and by demonstrating that you are reading and considering other student's answers. Your participation in these discussion forums is considered in evaluating your overall course performance.

It is important to remember that these discussion forums are moderated and the instructors have the right to remove any content deemed inappropriate. You must adhere to the code of conduct, but in short, messages that are entirely unrelated to the class, and messages that are related to the overall program but not this specific class do not belong on the SPCI508 discussion forum. We do encourage you to post interesting articles, news clippings, thoughts, and so on that are related to risk management or risk assessment in general. Personal notes to other students should be sent via e-mail and not posted in the discussion forum.

Final Project

An important component of risk assessment and risk management is learning to work with a diverse multi-disciplinary team. In this course, you will do a group project to simulate these "real-world" situations. To create a balance of talents and experience in each team, your instructor will assign you to a team of approximately six members based on the biography you supplied to the SPCI program. To facilitate the process, you can communicate with each other via e-mail or use the Team Discussion Forums, which you'll find in "Online Tools" in your online syllabus.

For your final project, your team will do a case study on a specific risk issue. When choosing your topic, keep in mind that it is very important to narrow your focus so your group can produce a comprehensive and detailed risk-assessment and risk-management plan rather than a broad and superficial approach.

Your case study will include a complete risk assessment, a risk-management plan and a risk communication plan. In addition, your team will provide a timeline, a rough budget, and information about the scale of the necessary approach. You will also identify key agencies and infrastructures that should to interact to deal with the problem posed . In the conclusions, you will identify lessons learned and vulnerabilities in your "foundation" that need to be addressed. In performing these tasks, you should apply the tools that are provided throughout the course.

A final discussion forum question will wrap up the final project and the course. All final projects will be posted online. You will be required to read another group's project and evaluate if risk management actions could be prioritized based on the information provided by the group.

Team Discussion Forums

Note that your participation in your team's discussion forums will contribute toward your final grade in the course. You will be asked to evaluate your own work and that of each of your teammates, using a set of guidelines for successful online teamwork. You'll find more details about how to evaluate online teamwork in "Online Tools" in your online syllabus.

Grading

You will receive a numeric grade for this course. The numeric grading system used by the University of Washington relies on a decimal scale between 1.7 (low) and 4.0 (high).

University of Washington Grade Scale for Graduate Students:

4.0 - 3.9 = A
3.8 - 3.5 = A -
3.4 - 3.1 = B+
3.0 - 2.9 = B
2.8 - 2.5 = B-
2.4 - 2.1 = C+
2.0 - 1.7 = C

For graduate courses, grades below 1.7 are recorded as 0.0 by and no credit is earned. A minimum of 2.7 is required in each course that is counted toward a graduate degree. A 3.0 cumulative average in graduate work is required to receive a graduate degree.

Instructors may choose to rely entirely on the grades and interpretations given below, or may "interpolate" grades between these standards as they see fit.

Numerical Grade	Criteria
4.0	Excellent and exceptional work for a graduate student. Work at this level is consistently creative (where appropriate), thorough, well-reasoned, insightful, well written and shows clear recognition and incisive understanding of the important materials and issues. All assignments submitted are of good professional quality. The value of individual contributions to this course is considerable and positively affects the learning of all participants.
3.7	Strong work for a graduate student. Work at this level sometimes shows signs of creativity, is thorough and well reasoned, and demonstrates clear recognition and good understanding of the important materials and issues. Assignments submitted lack professional quality but demonstrate effort and concern for quality. The value of individual contributions to the course is strong and occasionally significant.
3.3	Competent and sound work for a graduate student. Work is well reasoned and thorough but not especially creative or insightful. The student shows adequate understanding of the important materials and issues although that understanding may be somewhat incomplete. Work submitted is competent but not remarkable. The value of individual contributions to the course is such that they do not influence the quality of the course one way or the other. This grade indicates neither exceptional strengths nor exceptional weaknesses, but is the grade for 'average' graduate performance.
3.0	Adequate work for a graduate student. Work is moderately thorough and well reasoned, but with some indications that some of the important materials and issues is less than complete and perhaps inadequate for graduate study. The value of individual contributions to the course is minimal. However, the work is above the minimal expectations for the course.
2.7	Borderline work for a graduate student. Work barely meets the minimal expectations for the course and may occasionally fall below them. Understanding of the important materials and issues is incomplete or has not been demonstrated. There is little positive value in the individual contributions to the course and there may even be negative effects on the overall learning. Consistent overall performance at this level would be below that of adequate graduate student performance.

Component	Percentage of final grade
Five assignments at 5% each	25%
Participation in all discussion forums	25%
Final course project	50%

Grades in this course are based on the following:

Addressing all parts of each assignment.
Providing adequate treatment of each part of the assignment. For example, if an item calls for an explanation of factors involved, an answer that lists factors without explaining them will be inadequate.
Relating your work on the assignments to current and previous course readings, lessons, or supplementary readings as appropriate.
Originality of your work.
Level of critical thinking.
Professional writing style.
Documenting your sources—that is, providing citations to published material, government documents, personal interviews, and so on.
Submitting the assignment on time.
Correct citation of sources.

The following information on grading explains the criteria for your performance in the class. If you meet these criteria for all your work, in the judgment of your instructors, you will be graded appropriately.

Component	Percentage	Criteria
Content	75%	For written assignments and discussion forum assignments, where there is more than one part to a question, you have answered all parts of the question completely and thoroughly. You demonstrate engagement with the material. Although there may not be a "right" answer, your process for arriving at your answer is transparent and methodical—that is, the reader can follow your argument.
Style	15%	Spelling, punctuation, grammar, and so on are of professional quality, with at most one or two errors.
Timeliness	10%	Your assignment or discussion contribution is submitted on time and in the approved format (see "About Your Instructor" for submission instructions). Any late submissions have been pre-approved by your instructors. Note: repeated unapproved late assignments may result in your failing the course.

Study Tips

Test your access to the Web site, readings, and discussion materials the first week of the course, and let your instructors know right away if any of the electronic tools are not working correctly.
Pace yourself. Don't try to do everything at once, especially right before the assignment is due.
Set aside time each week that is dedicated exclusively to this course. If you set the time up early, it'll give you more incentive to do the work.
Do the readings first, then the online portion of the course; then, do your assignments while the material is fresh.
Use all available resources: these include instructors, classmates, library resources, and so on.
You will not be handed all of the information you need for your assignments and projects—you will be expected to conduct literature searches on your own to find some of the pertinent information. Please talk to the instructors if you are having problems with these lit searches.

Academic Integrity

In this course, you are required to follow the University of Washington guidelines for academic honesty. Please review the "Academic Honesty Policy" section of the Online Student Handbook as well as the MSPCI Student Code of Conduct in your online syllabus. It is very important to cite sources correctly when completing assignments or posting in discussion forums. Please go to What is Plagiarism at Indiana University? to complete a quiz on plagiarism before beginning the first assignment.

About the Developers

Elaine M. Faustman, Ph.D.

Dr. Faustman is a Professor in the Department of Environmental and Occupational Health and Director of the Institute for Risk Analysis and Risk Communication at the School of Public Health and Community Medicine at the University of Washington. She is an affiliate professor in the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie-Mellon University. Dr. Faustman is director of the NIEHS- and EPA-funded Center for Child Environmental Health Risks Research and director of the NSF and NIEHS Center for Human Health and Ocean Sciences. She is a member of the NIEHS-funded University of Washington Center on Ecogenetics and Environmental Health and the Toxicogenomics Center. She is an elected fellow of both the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the Society for Risk Analysis. She also has served on the National Toxicology Program Board of Scientific Counselors, the National Academy of Sciences Committee on Toxicology, the executive boards of the Society of Toxicology and the Teratology Society, the NIEHS Council, and numerous editorial boards. Dr. Faustman chaired the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Committee on Developmental Toxicology and was a member of the NAS Committee on Toxicology and the Institute of Medicine Subcommittee on Upper Safe Reference Levels of Nutrients. Her research interests include understanding mechanisms of susceptibility that put the public at risk from environmental agents. Dr. Faustman's research expertise includes developing decision-analytic tools for communicating and translating new scientific findings into risk assessment and risk management decisions.

Lisa Younglove, MPH

Lisa Younglove is a research scientist for the Institute for Risk Analysis and Risk Communication at the School of Public Health and Community Medicine at the University of Washington. Her research interests include community outreach on controversial issues, risk communication, formation of community advisory boards, environmental justice, and pesticide and fish consumption issues. Her current projects include working with the Center for Child Environmental Health Risks Research, the Pacific Northwest Center for Oceans and Human Health, and the Environmental Justice Network in Action. She has developed various Risk Assessment Journal Clubs and coordinated seminar series on issues related to oceans and human health and children's environmental health. She is a member of the Society for Risk Analysis, the American Public Health Association, and the Society for Technical Communication.

Melinda Vredevoogd, MS

Melinda Vredevoogd, MS is a research scientist for the Institute for Risk Analysis and Risk Communication at the school of Public Health and Community Medicine at the University of Washington. Her research interests aim to improve the quality and relevance of the scientific information used to evaluate and communicate human health risk as applied to risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. Her research focus includes children's environmental health, mechanisms of susceptibility to environmental agents such as pesticides and heavy metals, and the incorporation of toxicogenomic information into risk assessment methodologies. Her past and current projects include developing manuscripts, journal clubs, and seminars in topics including genomics, risk assessment, genetic susceptibility issues, mechanism of response, and heavy metal exposure. Melinda has a dual Master of Science in toxicology and chemistry from the University of Washington.

SPCI 508

SPCI 508 Risk Assessment and Management