SPCI 510
Strategic Planning Practicum 2

Course Introduction

Overview

In this course, we continue our studies of decision-making and judgment. In the first practicum, we focused on rational decision-making methods. Rational decision-making methods provide normative standards for institutional processes where accountability is very important and where there is ample time for analysis. The critical issue that faces leaders or managers who are trying to avert disasters or reduce the consequences of disasters is that rational decision-making theories and techniques often fail at a point of crisis. First, there is no time to engage in careful analysis; second, the resources for carrying out analysis are often not available or are out of commission. Equally important, individuals involved are under tremendous stress, which impairs analytic thought.

In this practicum, we will examine how people make quick decisions where time for analysis is limited. To investigate decision-making in disaster situations, we will explore in depth two cases, the 9/11 attacks and the Challenger mission.

Because critical infrastructure protection is a group or team effort, we will also examine some theories of group dynamics. In particular, we will study Incident Management Systems, including the National Incident Management System (NIMS) adopted by the United States Department of Homeland Security (USDHS). Factors that lead to stress, characteristics of stress, and how to address stress in teams and individuals will also be studied.

Course Prerequisites

To enroll in this course, you must have completed Strategic Planning Practicum I (SPCI 506).

Learning Objectives

At the end of this course, you should be able to

• identify and compare and contrast major decision-making theories;
• develop analyses of decision-making in complex situations using decision-making theories;
• describe ways in which individuals and teams can improve their expert judgment;
• identify and compare and contrast major group dynamics theories/models;
• develop analyses of decision-making in complex situations using group dynamics models;
• describe the major aspects of the Incident Management Systems approach (IMS);
• develop analyses of decision-making in complex situations using the IMS and NIMS approaches;
• identify factors that generate stress among the responders in major accidents, disasters or attacks;
• describe techniques to reduce stress in IMS teams;
• describe rules of thumb used for developing and evaluating oral presentations;
• describe rules of thumb used for developing and evaluating PowerPoint presentations; and
• prepare and deliver a PowerPoint presentation that explains through the use of theories and models an aspect of a complex decision-making process that ended in disaster.

Required Readings

Books

• Flin, Rhona. Sitting in the Hot Seat: Leaders and Teams for Critical Incident Management. Chichester, UK: Wiley and Sons, 1996. ISBN: 0-471-95796-8
• Klein, Gary. Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1998. ISBN: 0-262-11227-2
• Lovell, Jim. Apollo 13: Lost Moon. New York: Houghton Mifflin, 1994. ISBN: 0-618-05665-3

Articles

• Linstone, H.A. (1989). Multiple Perspectives: Concept, Applications, and User Guidelines. Systems Practice 2(3) 307-331. (PDF)
• Tuckman, B.W. "Developmental Sequence in Small Groups,"Psychological Bulletin, vol. 63, 1965, pp. 384-399. (PDF)

Web Sites

• FEMA. August 2004. National Incident Management System (NIMS), an Introduction IS-700 Self-Study Guide
• Challenger Accident: Report of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident (commonly called the Rogers Commission Report), June 1986 and Implementations of the Recommendations, June 1987

Recommended Reading

9/11 Presidential Commission Documents (US Department of State Web site)

Technology Requirements and Skills

See the Online Student Handbook for the technology requirements and skills necessary for this course.

Course Organization

This course is organized into a series of eight lessons designed to be completed in eight weeks. One online commentary is presented per week. The commentaries are substantive, so take the time to read them thoroughly.

Lesson Topics

Lesson One: How do Experts Make Judgments/Decisions Under Stress?	Recognition-Primed Decision Model The Role of Intuition in Judgment and Decision-Making Mental Simulation Readings: Klein, chapters 1-5, pp. 1-74 Lovell, chapters 1-6, pp. 1-184
Lesson Two: Sources of Power for Improving Judgment	Mental simulation and the Recognition-Primed Model Leverage Points Nonlinear Aspects of Problem-Solving Multiple Perspectives approach The Apollo 13 Disaster as a Case Study in decision-making Readings: Klein, Chapters 6-9, pp. 75-146 Lovell, Chapters 7-11, pp. 184-382 H.A. Linstone (1989). Multiple Perspectives: Concept, Applications, and User Guidelines. Systems Practice 2(3) 307-331
Lesson Three: Factors that Shape Intuition	Patterns and anomalies, the big picture The role of stories The role of metaphors and analogies Communicating intent Readings: Klein, Chapters 10-13, pp. 147-232 Challenger Accident: Report of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident (commonly called the Rogers Commission Report), June 1986 and Implementations of the Recommendations, June 1987
Lesson Four: Presentation Guidelines	Readings: tbd
Lesson Five: Incident Command Management and NIMS	The Role of the Incident Commander Selection criteria for Commanders Training Incident Commanders The National Incident Management System Readings: Flin, pp. 1-96. FEMA. August 2004. National Incident Management System (NIMS), an Introduction IS-700 Self-Study Guide.
Lesson Six: Stress in Incident Management	Causes of stress for commanders in emergencies Effects and Symptoms Managing Stress Readings: Flin, Chapter 4, pp. 97-140
Lesson Seven: Decision Making Theories	The power of rational analysis Naturalistic decision-making, including the Recognition-Primed Model The effects of stress on decision-making Readings: Klein, Chapters 15-17, pp. 259–293 Flin, pp. 134-184
Lesson Eight: Teams, Their Formation, Characteristics, and Learning	Stages of team formation Team mind and team learning Incident Command Teams Readings: Klein, Chapters 14, pp. 232-257 Flin, Chapter 6, pp. 185-208 Tuckman, B.W. "Developmental Sequence in Small Groups,"Psychological Bulletin, vol. 63, 1965, pp. 384-399.

Assignments

• There will be two discussion forum assignments that focus on the two cases we will examine in this course, 9/11 and the Challenger mission. See below for information on how the forums will be graded.
• There is a final project based on the readings, due at the end of the quarter. The project has two parts, a paper (max. 10 pages) and a 10-minute PowerPoint presentation. See below for details about the project.
• There are no exams.

To pass the course, you must satisfactorily complete all discussion forum assignments and submit your paper and PowerPoint presentation. No credit will be given for partial completion.

Discussing Forum Grading Criteria

Grades on the discussion forum participation will be based on

• addressing all parts of each assignment;
• providing adequate treatment of each part of the assignment; for example, if an item calls for an explanation of factors involved, an answer that lists factors without explaining them will be inadequate;
• relating your work on the assignments to course readings, lessons, discussions, or supplementary readings as appropriate; and
• documenting your sources; that is, providing citations to published material, government documents, personal interviews.

Your instructor will provide structured questions and guidelines for discussion. You are expected to participate by providing thoughtful, substantive answers and also responding to other students. In other words, engage in meaningful conversation!

At least two types of discussion forums will be available:

1. A general discussion forum, which will be used for ongoing conversation, class news, and so on.
2. Group discussion boards for group assignments.

You are encouraged to post all questions about course content in the general discussion forum. If you e-mail your question to the instructor, the instructor reserves the right to post your questions on the discussion forum if he or she considers the questions important or representative enough that the entire class would benefit from the answers. In this event, the sender's name will be removed.

Note: If you have questions that you don't want to discuss with the entire class, you may e-mail your instructor directly per the address on the About Your Instructor page.

All discussion forum assignments are reviewed and returned within one week of submission.

Final Project

For the final project, you will select a decision making or problem-solving situation that you have encountered, either in the literature or through your experience, that falls within the naturalistic decision-making model. Your project will include the following elements: a summary of the situation and a diagram using recognition primed decision models and mental simulation models; a description of the techniques that could have been used to avoid failures in judgment (if there were any), a description and explanation of the role of stories in the decision-making process; a description of the role of teamwork in furthering or hindering the decision; and a discussion of the role that stress played in the decision or judgment arrived at.

Please see "Final Project"on the course syllabus for detailed information about the requirements and criteria for each element.

Late Assignments

To earn credit, you must complete assignments on time.

If unforeseen circumstances prevent you from completing an assignment by the due date, please contact your instructor before the assignment is due to obtain permission for a late submission. Without such permission, your assignment will not be accepted.

Grading

This is a credit/no-credit course. If your assignments overall are satisfactory, you will receive three graduate credits for this course. You will not receive a numeric grade, although assignments will be graded on a numeric scale, using the following criteria:

4.0	Excellent and exceptional work for a graduate student. Work at this level is consistently creative (where appropriate), thorough, well-reasoned, insightful, well written and shows clear recognition and incisive understanding of the important materials and issues. All assignments submitted are of good professional quality. The value of individual contributions to this course is considerable and positively affects the learning of all participants.
3.8	Strong work for a graduate student. Work at this level sometimes shows signs of creativity, is thorough and well reasoned, and demonstrates clear recognition and good understanding of the important materials and issues. Assignments submitted lack professional quality but demonstrate effort and concern for quality. The value of individual contributions to the course is strong and occasionally significant.
3.5	Competent and sound work for a graduate student. Work is well reasoned and thorough but not especially creative or insightful. The student shows adequate understanding of the important materials and issues although that understanding may be somewhat incomplete. Work submitted is competent but not remarkable. The value of individual contributions to the course is such that they do not influence the quality of the course one way or the other. This grade indicates neither exceptional strengths nor exceptional weaknesses, but is the grade for "average" graduate performance.
3.0	Adequate work for a graduate student. Work is moderately thorough and well reasoned, but with some indications that some of the important materials and issues is less than complete and perhaps inadequate for graduate study. The value of individual contributions to the course is minimal. However, the work is above the minimal expectations for the course.
2.7	Borderline work for a graduate student. Work barely meets the minimal expectations for the course and may occasionally fall below them. Understanding of the important materials and issues is incomplete or has not been demonstrated. There is little positive value in the individual contributions to the course and there may even be negative effects on the overall learning. Consistent overall performance at this level would be below that of adequate graduate student performance.

Study Tips

Please read the online commentaries before the textbook and article readings. Some hints:

• Pace yourself.
• Set aside time each week that is dedicated exclusively to the course.
• Begin assignments as soon as possible after completing the readings. Use all available resources, including your fellow classmates.

About the Course Developer

Hilda Blanco is a Professor and Chair of the Urban Design and Planning Department at the University of Washington. She obtained her Masters (1984) and Ph.D. (1989) degrees in City and Regional Planning from the University of California, Berkeley. Her professional experience in public planning includes work for the cities of San Francisco and Oakland, the New Jersey Office of State Planning, and the NY and NJ Port Authority, as well as consultancies and research grants for various national and international projects. Prof. Blanco specializes in planning theory, including systems analysis and strategic planning. Her book, How to Think about Social Problems (1994) and several articles focus on the planning process. She is an expert in state growth management programs and teaches graduate courses in infrastructure and local finance.

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